20210923 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 38 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ed deep into W1 demand and react­ed and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last week’s body cur­rent­ly devel­op­ing a pos­si­ble long buy­ing wick (no close yet)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Up react­ing off D1-C‑D 15125.15 clos­ing above D1 QLo with no arrival at QHi (yet)
  • Yes­ter­day tra­versed 1.41xADR
  • H4 Phase 4 reject­ing H4 QLo and arriv­ing at H4 QHi, no redac­tion (yet)
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Down 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23587
  • ASR: 14567
    • 3650
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15550.60
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15223.00

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.11xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance. Yes­ter­day exceed­ed ADR by 1.41. Price has a large imbal­ance war­rant­i­ng a mean rever­sion. Price is near­ing D1 Sup­ply and trad­ing with­in H4 QHi. No test of D1 QHi (yet). Trend is Down 2/3. If price retraces to H4-C‑D 15455.51 BASE lev­el there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion down. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion down
• Hypo 2
  • Rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 3
  • Return to Val­ue, pos­si­ble Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 
• Hypo 4
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Up, late-sus­tained auc­tion entry preferred

Addi­tion­al notes

• Fed Inter­est Rate Decision

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15696.82

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15336.47
• D1-C‑D 15125.15

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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