20210922 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 38 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body after hav­ing made a LL below its range bounc­ing off W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Morn­ing Star and con­tin­u­a­tion higher
  • H4 Slow­down at H4 50MA in DT trad­ing mid swing after H4 QLo rejection
• Trend: H4 , D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Down 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wide Val­ue was cre­at­ed above the previous
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23833
  • ASR: 14563
    • 364
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1781.630
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1757.870

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0..58xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. Trend is down 2/3. Pre­mar­ket trad­ed slight­ly high­er but failed to take out sup­ply. IB trad­ed down 0.22. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, 
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, VAH rever­sal long, 
• Hypo 3
  •  Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to hypo 1 (very risky if val­ue gets accepted)

Addi­tion­al notes

• Fed rate deci­sion tomorrow

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1794.187

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1739.674

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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