20210922 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 38 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body and range with­in W1 demand

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Inside Bar clos­ing above D1 QLo after react­ing off D1-C‑D 15125.15 coin­cid­ing with D1 200MA
  • H4 Bull Engulf to RBR clos­ing above D1/H4 QLo fol­lowed by a re-test of H4 QLo through some con­sol­i­da­tion and Bull Engulf reject­ing H4 QLo
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Down 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wide val­ue cre­at­ed fol­lowed by a val­ue above it
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 21179
  • ASR: 15465
    • 3900
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15395.30
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15105.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.48xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large imbal­ance. Price opened after ADR got exhaust­ed and Asia trad­ed high­er. H4 Con­sol­i­da­tion at D1 QLo with Bull ENgulf fin­ish­er and open sen­ti­ment favor a long bias in line with a devel­op­ing D1 Three Inside Up for­ma­tion. But Trend is Down 2/3.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Val­ue edge reversal
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion Long, probe of val­ue (H4 demand with­in value)
• Hypo 3
  •  Val­ue Accep­tance, (risky due to H4 demand)
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, very risky in equities,

Addi­tion­al notes

• Fed Inter­est Rate Deci­sion tomorrow

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15696.82

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15336.47
• D1-C‑D 15125.15

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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