20210914 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 37 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s bear engulf

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Some D1 con­sol­i­da­tion below D1 QHi
  • H4 Bull Engulf clos­ing above H4 QLo with no con­tin­u­a­tion. Instead a DBD. 
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below 3‑day bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 18202
  • ASR: 10949
    • 2750
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1798.190
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1783.620

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.20xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Even though out­side of range the rel­a­tive dis­tance to val­ue edge is small. Asia con­sol­i­dat­ed below new­ly formed supply. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 2
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 (trad­ing right into demand)
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2
• Hypo 4
  • Return to Val­ue, Val­ue edge rever­sal, Failed Auc­tion Long (val­ue rota­tion makes this less probable)

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1826.118
• H4-C‑S 1799.668

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1781.384

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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