20210914 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 37 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body above W1 VWAP

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Returned to D1 QHi tra­vers­ing 1.47xADR
  • H4 Inside Bar at D1 QHi with no con­tin­u­a­tion down instead a BUll Engulf clos­ing with­in new­ly formed supply. 
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue formed right on top of the pre­ced­ing one
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 16084
  • ASR: 13876
    • 3500
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15787.60
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15554.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.07xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Yes­ter­day exceed­ed ADR by 1.47. Asia com­plet­ed a H4 Three Inside Down below D1 QHi. There might be more down­side before a con­tin­ued move higher. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 2
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, 
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1/2 (risky)

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• H4-C‑S 15721.28

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15664.00
• MN-C‑D 15585.83
• D1-C‑D 15548.18

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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