20210913 Trade Review DAX

Play: Strength From With­in IBR

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #DAX #DE30 #DE30Cash

Mar­ket Narrative

Price slow­down on D1 when arriv­ing at larg­er time­frame demand. Asia had trad­ed high­er after a H4 QLo rejec­tion. Trend was up 2/3. Close prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge with 0.01xASR below val­ue, with­in range indi­cates a mod­er­ate imbal­ance and high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty of a val­ue accep­tance. This accep­tance came dur­ing IB. IBR was 0.66xASR wide indi­cat­ing a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty for a move back into IBR if there was a probe out­side of it ie. IB exten­sion. How­ev­er, due to price hav­ing rotat­ed through val­ue and was con­sol­i­dat­ing above VAH (plus DAX being equi­ties) I decid­ed the more prob­a­ble play would be a strength from with­in IBR long. Then mon­i­tor for a sus­tained auc­tion which came lat­er in the session. 

What hypo was it?

Hypo 4

Strength from with­in IBR

Due to the wide IBR I could have put this high­er in my rank­ing of the hypos. At least I includ­ed it and most of all I exe­cut­ed on it. 

How was the Entry?

The Entry was good although I was stalk­ing a bet­ter entry to be hon­est. When price hit the M5 demand I was think­ing to just go long. Then I thought let’s see if there’s a reac­tion first. When the bull engulf came it was quite weak. The fol­low­ing M5 was a soji with slight­ly longer sell­ing wick so I wait­ed for a RBR to com­plete before enter­ing. This was okay as I was still with­in my area that allowed for good SL placement. 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

I used a stan­dard sized SL and this was okay.

How was the prof­it target?

ASR exhaus­tion was at 1.5R but I expect­ed price to move through it a bit more hit­ting 2R before pos­si­bly revers­ing as I have seen that hap­pen many times. 

How was the Exit?

I took the trade off at 2R maybe a few pips too ear­ly but hey fuck it. Price even­tu­al­ly start­ed revers­ing so I am hap­py with my decision. 

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

1.5R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

1.6R, 1.5R in over­lap noise. End of Day would have tak­en out my SL ‑1R. 

What did I do well?

I did well to under­stand the nar­ra­tive and let it over­rule the wide IBR impli­ca­tion and go long any­way instead of wait­ing for a failed auction. 

What could I have done better?

I am very hap­py with this trade. I mon­i­tored for a con­tin­ued val­i­da­tion of my the­sis. When E extend­ed one pip above IB I thought okay not the strongest but at least they’re try­ing to take it high­er. Then in G price final­ly made its move. 

Obser­va­tions

A rota­tion through val­ue has a con­tin­u­a­tion bias instead of a reversal. 

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

N.A. 

TAGS: Below Val­ue, With­in Range, Mod­er­ate Imbalance, 

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