20210913 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 37 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s W1 Bear Engulf

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Some con­sol­i­da­tion below D1 Qhi
  • Price trad­ing with­in H4 QLo with some reac­tion off D1 demand
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3‑day brack­et
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR:18346 
  • ASR: 10798
    • 2700
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1803.780
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1787.150

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.74xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. Mean Rever­sion cri­te­ria not entire­ly met but could still see a move to val­ue edge. Although with a big bear engulf in the way this could prove problematic. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 2
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion long
• Hypo 3
  •  Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1799.668

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1796.502
• D1-C‑D 1781.384

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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