20210909 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 36 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Con­tin­u­a­tion to the W1 DBD react­ing off W1 Supply
• Price returned to MN demand

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Down at W1 Sup­ply tak­ing out D1 demand and clos­ing deep with­in W1-C‑D 15664.00 tra­vers­ing 1.73xADR
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3 to 4 transition 
  • H4 Phase 4 arriv­ing at H4 QLo with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing within
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Down
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wide val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 15108
  • ASR: 12219
    • 3055
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15846.80
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15588.40

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.64xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. IB trad­ed down 0.85xASR exhaust­ing ADR fol­low­ing Asia trad­ing down as well indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble respon­sive activ­i­ty although D1 phase 4 might be on ahead of ECB inter­est rate deci­sion. Prev. Day Exceed­ed ADR and price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in D1 Demand at D1 LKC.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Strength from with­in IBR
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion Long 
• Hypo 3
  • Return to Val­ue, val­ue edge rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 4
  •  Weak­ness from with­in IBR

Addi­tion­al notes

• ECB Inter­est Rate deci­sion today at 19:45

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15966.51
• W1-C‑S 15830.15

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15664.00
• MN-C‑D 15585.83
• D1-C‑D 15548.18

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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