20210908 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 36 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last month’s Drag­on­Fly Doji’s body
• Price trad­ing below last week’s body and range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Down exceed­ed ADR by quite a bit pos­si­bil­i­ty for some retracement
  • H4 Phase 4 arriv­ing at H4 QLo after QHi rejec­tion and hormed a H4 Bull ENgulf in pre­mar­ket giv­ing H4-C‑D 1796.502
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price returned to pre­vi­ous brack­et­ing range and made a wider val­ue with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 19001
  • ASR: 10739
    • 2685
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1827.140
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1792.340

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.20xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance. Price formed a H4 Bull Engulf in pre­mar­ket at H4 QLo. Prev. Day exceed­ed ADR by quite a bit form­ing a Three Inside Down of which the nature would be to force a con­tin­u­a­tion per­haps around W1 Sup­ply at VAL.  This move down took out D1 Demand. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auc­tion Up
• Hypo 2
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, Return to Val­ue, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 
• Hypo 3
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Short, late-sus­tained auc­tion entry pre­ferred (risky due to open sentiment)
• Hypo 4 
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 3

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1826.118

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1796.502
• D1-C‑D 1781.384

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R tar­get, lat­est cut-off 1:30 Lon­don time
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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