20210908 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 36 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price test­ed W1 Sup­ply and start­ed react­ing and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last week’s body after fail­ing to make a HH (still ear­ly in the week though)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar at W1 Sup­ply clos­ing at D1 demand
  • H4 Phase 4 com­ing from H4 QHi rejec­tion with no arrival at QLo (yet) trad­ing mid swing
• Trend: H4 , D1 , W1 
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above brack­et­ing range 2 days in a row with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 13545
  • ASR: 11015
    • 2750
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15928.30
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15808.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.83xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance. IBR trad­ed down 1.56xASR tak­ing out D1 demand arriv­ing at H4 QLo. Price trad­ing at W1-C‑D 15664.00 (coin­cid­ing with W1 VWAP in UT)
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Strength From With­in IBR
• Hypo 2
  •  Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 3
  •  Weak­ness from with­in IBR, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, 2
• Hypo 4
  • Uni­di­rec­tion­al Day as Asia trad­ed down as well, sus­tained auc­tion down (risky)

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15966.51
• W1-C‑S 15830.15

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15664.00
• MN-C‑D 15585.83

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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