20210907 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 36 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last month’s body but with­in range
• Price trad­ing above W1 VWAP in UT with­in W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf clos­ing above demand and with­in W1 sup­ply tra­vers­ing 2.16xASR
  • H4 Phase 2 com­ing from H4 QLo rejec­tion to D1 sup­ply and H4 Three Inside Down was formed at H4 QHi giv­ing some supply
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Flim­sy brack­et­ing range going on
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 14024
  • ASR: 11028
    • 2750
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15959.50
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15723.80

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.16xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. Yes­ter­day price tra­versed a sig­nif­i­cant amount the expectan­cy is for a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty for a counter move. Price trad­ing at H4 QHi after rejec­tion. Although trend is still up so could be risky. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • VAA, Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, pre­ferred late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
• Hypo 2
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 3
  • Return to Val­ue, pos­si­ble failed auc­tion long although risky due to tight IBR

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15966.51
• W1-C‑S 15830.15

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15764.16
• MN-C‑D 15585.83

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 20 trades by the end of the month, prefer­ably 2 a day (not in the same prod­uct at the same time) 
• Week­ly Goal
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
  • No ear­ly exits, either hit SL or 2R target
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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