20210831 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 35 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last week’s Inside Bar with­in W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price trad­ed and closed high­er fol­low­ing the D1 Bull Engulf clos­ing with­in D1 Supply
  • H4 Bear Engulf formed at old H4 sup­ply clos­ing above new­ly formed H4-C‑D 15856.49
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the 2 over­lap­ping val­ues but still with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 10986
  • ASR: 10016
    • 2500
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15904.60
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15814.00

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.41xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. Gap up. Dur­ing Asia price took out D1 Sup­ply but is run­ning into anoth­er D1 sup­ply. Poten­tial for a uni­di­rec­tion­al day per­haps. H4 bull engulf giv­ing H4-C‑D 15893.22 right at VAH. Pre­mar­ket turned trend up 3/3. IB tra­versed 0.59xASR exhaust­ing ADR to the upside trad­ing with­in H4 QHi. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion down, poten­tial­ly entry off weak­ness from with­in IBR, per­haps even a Failed Auc­tion like yesterday 
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 3
  • Strength from with­in IBR to sus­tained auc­tion up
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 3

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15966.51

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15824.94
• W1-C‑D 15660.10

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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