Play: Sustained Auction
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Market Narrative
There was a retest of newly formed D1 Bull Engulf C‑line. Trend is up 2/3. Open sentiment was on large imbalance 0.51xASR above value, outside range. Price was coming off from a H4 QLo rejection and is trading mid-swing.
What hypo was it?
Hypo 3
Sustained Auction Up
I did not think this as too probable on the day hence I put it as Hypo 3. But when C TPo closed above IB as well as Asia and yesterday’s high as a Marubozu candle I thought to give it a try.
How was the Entry?
Entry was on the close of C TPO. In hindsight I should’ve known that there would be some reaction to get in later. Although due to the Marubozu candle and extension in C TPO I thought there could potentially be momentum behind the move.
Another thing I am considering is that I could have gotten a better entry due to a strength from within IBR play using the M15 Bull Engulf as a potential entry. .
How was the SL placement and sizing?
Standard SL sizing due to the momentum nature of the trade. If I had that early entry on the strength from within IBR there could have been a tighter SL placement.
How was the profit target?
ADR exhaustion is not far above if hit there could be a continuation to the move and 2R wasn’t far off.
How was the Exit?
D and E had made a HH although E failed to close above IB and instead Failed the Auction. Which I took as my exit for ‑0.3R. I kind of regretted it after getting out due to the HH being made. But with price trading within D1 Supply and not making a meaningful move I thought it was still the right decision. I then reversed my position to short which I will detail in the next post.
What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?
-0.3R
What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?
-0.6R, ‑0.7R in overlap noise
What did I do well?
I did well to act on a possible opportunity. Alas, it didn’t pan out which is okay.
What could I have done better?
At the time I thought I should’ve stuck with the trade a little longer due to profile having made HHs. Then when it failed to do so again I could have cut the trade and reversed. Hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
Observations
N.A.
Missed Opportunity
Failed Auction Short will be discussed in my next post which wasn’t missed. I actually took the trade.
TAGS: Above Value, Outside Range, Moderate to Large Imbalance,
Premarket prep on the day
Daily Report Card on the day