20210826 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 34 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body and W1 Sup­ply but with­in range of long buy­ing wick

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 15864.53 formed at D1 Sup­ply Base lev­el clos­ing on its low but above D1 demand
  • H4 Phase 4 trad­ing mid swing
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 over­lap­ping val­ue with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 11238
  • ASR: 10933
    • 2733
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15935.10
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15834.80

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.82xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance at the open. IBR already tra­versed up 1.1xASR indi­cat­ing pos­si­ble respon­sive activ­i­ty after react­ing off H4 QLo in an uptrend (2/3) trad­ing with­in D1 demand. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Strength from with­in IBR
• Hypo 2
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, D1-C‑S 15864.53 at VAL,
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, risky due to trad­ing at D1 demand and open sentiment
• Hypo 4
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auc­tion Up although late-sus­tained auc­tion entry is pre­ferred due to wide IBR.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15966.51
• D1-C‑S 15887.25 BASE
• D1-C‑S 15864.53

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15824.94
• W1-C‑D 15660.10

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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