20210825 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 34 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in last week’s body and W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed clos­ing high­er after hav­ing reached the D1 Sup­ply Base level
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down below H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the previous
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 12638
  • ASR: 11838
    • 3000
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15928.10
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15854.90

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.03xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Open above, with­in range. Pre­mar­ket closed as a H4 Bull Engulf at D1 Sup­ply Base level. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Val­ue Edge Rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion long
• Hypo 2
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to hypo 3
• Hypo 3
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, risky due to open above sen­ti­ment and demand with­in val­ue, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry or test at val­ue edge
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15966.51
• D1-C‑S 15887.25 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15824.94
• W1-C‑D 15660.10

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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