20210824 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 34 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body and W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 RBR at D1-C‑D 15824.94 after D1-C‑S 15887.25 BASE was reached
  • H4 RBR with price trad­ing at H4 Sup­ply cre­at­ed at D1 Sup­ply Base lev­el that was cre­at­ed through a H4 Bear Engulf at H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed above the 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 13277
  • ASR: 11815
    • 3000
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15938.90
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15797.90

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.54xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Open above, with­in range. Larg­er time­frame nar­ra­tive trumps the H4 QHi rejec­tion. Pre­mar­ket closed deep­er into H4 sup­ply test­ing H4 QHi again.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Rever­sal with­in IBR at LTF demand oth­er­wise a Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, prob­a­bly a fake out in line with Hypo 1 due to opens entiment
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 3

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15966.51
• D1-C‑S 15887.25 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15824.94
• W1-C‑D 15660.10

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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