20210820 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 33 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body and range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 DBD with longer buy­ing wick and price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing in the low­er range at D1 VWAP in UT
  • H4 Bull Engulf formed at old H4 demand coin­cid­ing with H4 200MA with no fol­low-through. Instead an Evening Star clos­ing with­in new­ly formed H4-C‑D 15767.70
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wider val­ue cre­at­ed below 3‑day brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 13024
  • ASR: 10805
    • 2700
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15906.30
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15621.80

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.33xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price accept­ed val­ue dur­ing A. Asia trad­ed some­what down but closed as a base with longer buy­ing wick. FF trad­ed High­er. Demand with­in val­ue could prove a bounc­ing board at M30 QLo. Wide IBR might be cause for more respon­sive activity. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Strength from with­in IBR to go Long
• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 4
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Short, prefer­ably a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• H4-C‑S 15786.96

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15767.70
• D1-C‑D 15547.73

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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