20210818 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 33 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Some con­tin­u­a­tion down from D1-C‑S 15966.51 but with longer buy­ing wicks
  • Some H4 Phase 1 / 3
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues after an uptrend formed below the high indi­cat­ing a slow­down in price
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 10846
  • ASR: 9832
    • 2458
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15945.70
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15806.60

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.26xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance. Price took out some sup­ply in pre­mar­ket test­ing D1-C‑S 15966.51 before clos­ing as a H4 Ham­mer. Price opened above val­ue out­side range so some mean rever­sion is pos­si­ble. Although due to the still close prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge cou­pled with an H4 Ham­mer that took out sup­ply there could be a H4 RBR devel­op­ing. If price extends the oppo­site direc­tion a poten­tial H4 Evening Star. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion to Val­ue Accep­tance, Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, late-sus­tained auc­tion preferred
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, Rever­sal at val­ue edge or Failed Auc­tion, demand with­in val­ue pos­si­ble bounce from with­in value
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15966.51

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15756.47

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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