20210817 Premarket Prep DAX

17 Aug 20210817 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 33 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Weak D1 Three Inside Down with long buy­ing wick giv­ing D1-C‑S 15966.51
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and Bull Engulf fin­ish­er giv­ing demand, with no con­tin­u­a­tion high­er. Instead a H4 Evening Star with follow-through.
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed below the pre­vi­ous (top of UT)
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 10678
  • ASR: 9618
    • 2405
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15970.30
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15847.90

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.13xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Bal­ance. After a big uptrend tak­ing out larg­er time­frame sup­ply, price has been sell­ing off. Open sen­ti­ment is below val­ue but with­in range so a val­ue accep­tance is pos­si­ble as trend is still up 2/3. Although Asia trad­ed down and IB exhaust­ed ADR to the downside. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 5
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, sus­tained auc­tion long
• Hypo 2
  •  Return to val­ue, val­ue edge rever­sal or per­haps a Failed Auc­tion prob­ing value
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2 if there is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the Asia move

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15964.09

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15756.47

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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