20210816 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 32 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price pulled back a bit on the D1
  • H4 cre­at­ed some sup­ply giv­ing H4-C‑S 15964.09 through a Bear­ish Inside Bar and con­tin­u­a­tion down to H4 VWAP in UT
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 10588
  • ASR: 10412
    • 2603
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 16030.76
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15925.69

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.91xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance at the open. Open below sen­ti­ment in an uptrend. Mean Rever­sion is most prob­a­ble although IBR already tra­versed 1.08xASR test­ing H4-C‑S 15964.09. After exhaust­ing ADR on the down­side. There could be some respon­sive activ­i­ty for the remain­der of the ses­sion. Although with an open below sen­ti­ment there could be a shift in larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment if there is no push higher.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 5
• Hypo 1
  • Weak­ness from with­in IBR, poten­tial mul­ti-time­frame swing lows for a long trade
• Hypo 2
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auc­tion Up
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, vari­a­tion to hypo 1
• Hypo 4
  • Weak­ness from with­in IBR, short

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• H4-C‑S 15964.09

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15756.47

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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