20210812 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 32 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price made a HH and took out W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 con­tin­u­a­tion Phase 2 tak­ing out D1 Sup­ply giv­ing new demand at D1-C‑D 15756.47
  • H4 trad­ed high­er and start­ed slow­ing down
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 4‑day brack­et­ing range although yesterday’s val­ue was wider 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 11043
  • ASR: 10250
    • 2563
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15889.80
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15722.90

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.22xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price took out D1/W1 Sup­ply yes­ter­day. H4 slowed down and pulled back a bit to LTF demand at VAH. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Up
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, Rever­sal at VAH or a Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 3
  •  Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1 or 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15756.47

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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