20210805 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 31 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing above last months Drag­on­fly Doji
• Price is trad­ing above last week’s body and range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Out­side Up trad­ing with­in W1 supply
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion after move high­er giv­ing a large demand and lit­tle supply
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed above the brack­et­ing range although still with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 14098
  • ASR: 11293
    • 2823
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15713.40
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15552.00

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • With­in Value
• Open dis­tance to value
  • N.A.
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Open with­in sug­gests some bal­anc­ing but IB trad­ed above VAH so if there is a break of IB up there could be a sus­tained auc­tion in line with a fol­low-through on the D1 Three Out­side Up. How­ev­er, yes­ter­day trad­ed 1.13xADR so there could be a retrace­ment of yesterday’s move which would be against the larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment. Trend is up 3/3
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion up, Val­ue Rejec­tion Up, tricky due to open with­in, pos­si­ble pull­back or weak­ness from with­in IBR
• Hypo 2
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, near­by D1 Supply
• Hypo 3
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 4
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, near­by ADR 0.5, 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15654.79
• H4-C‑S 15627.02

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15547.73

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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