20210804 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD 2021 Week 31 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is retrac­ing all of last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Evening star and con­tin­u­a­tion down clos­ing below D1 QHi with no arrival at W1 demand (yet)
  • Price reject­ed H4 QHi, pro­ceed­ed to make a sup­ply at H4-C‑S 1.98418 and arrived at H4 QLo
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is Up 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • A val­ue was cre­at­ed below the pre­ced­ing brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1076
  • ASR: 659
    • 16
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.99053
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.97510

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 2.03xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance at the open. IB trad­ed down to W1-C‑D 1.96800. Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to H4 Phase 4 although trad­ing at H4 QLo, trend is up ⅔. Price retraced to a W1 Three Inside Up c‑dem which is not a good sign but due to the larg­er time­frame expect­ing buy­ers to still come on. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, Failed Auc­tion Long as C already extend­ed below IB
• Hypo 2
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 3
• Hypo 3
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Down. very risky due to W1 demand, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 2.00000
• H4-C‑S 1.99407
• H4-C‑S 1.98418

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96800

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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