20210804 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 31 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price ducked below last week’s body but is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in the body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar clos­ing with­in D1 Sup­ply not hav­ing bro­ken the con­sol­i­da­tion (yet)
  • H4 Con­sol­i­da­tion below H4 QHi trad­ing with­in H4 supply
  • Price trad­ing with­in D1 QHi
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Flim­sy 3‑day brack­et indi­cat­ing slow-down continued
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 14047
  • ASR: 12181
    • 3045
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15606.50
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15492.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.20xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance due to open out­side range but still quite near to VAH. Trend is up 3/3. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Accep­tance Short
• Hypo 3
  •  Uni­di­rec­tion­al day. Asia trad­ed high­er, if Lon­don can trade high­er exhaust­ing ADR. Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1. Risky due to Neu­tral Day. 
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15654.79
• H4-C‑S 15627.02

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15547.73

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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