20210803 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

03 Aug 20210803 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD 2021 Week 31 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price is trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 DBD
  • H4 Bear Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.99407 and con­se­quent move lower
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Flim­sy 4‑day bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1035
  • ASR: 681
    • 17
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.99723
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.98518

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.47xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance / Gap Down 1.47xASR. Trend is up 3/3. IBR 0.66xASR is a bit wide. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auc­tion Up, per­haps a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion due to Wide IBR and LTF sup­ply at ASR high, sum­mer time trad­ing, if there is no sus­tained move in the first 2 hours. 
• Hypo 3
  •  Auc­tion Fade, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1,  Return to Value

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 2.00000
• H4-C‑S 1.99407

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.99122

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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