20210803 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 31 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price react­ed off W1 sup­ply again and is trad­ing slight­ly below the body of last week

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear Engulf with long sell­ing wick with a slight close with­in D1 demand. 
  • H4 Bull Engulf at D1 demand 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Price still with­in over­all range but yesterday’s val­ue is wider than usual
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 13912
  • ASR: 13187
    • 3297
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15704.40
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15510.10

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Open with­in value
• Open dis­tance to value
  • N.A.
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Bal­anc­ing mar­ket. ALthough trend is up there could be a push high­er as price is also trad­ing at the low­er half of the over­all range. There is a large LTF sup­ply right above that can inter­fere with any sus­tained auc­tion, also con­sid­er­ing the open with­in val­ue. Pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion plays are pre­ferred. Asia did trade high­er and could push through Lon­don as well. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, near­by LTF sup­ply, ADR 0.5 high
• Hypo 2
  •  Sus­tained Auc­tion Up, risky, pos­si­ble late sus­tained auc­tion entry
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 4
  • 3I-Day, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, Auc­tion Fade long

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15654.79

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15547.73

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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