20210802 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 31 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price cre­at­ed demand and is try­ing move high­er from D1-C‑D 15547.73 and took out D1 sup­ply dur­ing IB. 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Some larg­er swings after a brack­et­ing range but price is still with­in over­all range.
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 14520
  • ASR: 14858
    • 3715
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15611.99
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15437.25

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.06xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large imbal­ance / gap up. IB closed down with B form­ing a Bear Engulf. FF trad­ed high­er. C extend­ed IB down before clos­ing with­in IB Fail­ing Auc­tion. Although Asia and FF trad­ed high­er there could be a rever­sal com­ing down. IBR is 0.78xASR pos­si­ble respon­sive activity. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 3
  •  Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 4 — Less likely
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15654.79

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15547.73

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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