20210722 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD 2021 Week 29 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last month’s body with a reac­tion off new­ly formed MN-C‑D 1.95263
• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body trad­ing above W1 demand at W1 VWAP in UT

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Weak D1 Three Out­side Down formed at W1 demand react­ing off D1 QHi clos­ing above said demand
  • H4 trad­ed high­er react­ing off H4/W1 demand
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • After the 5‑day brack­et­ing range a val­ue was cre­at­ed below it but still with­in over­all range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1155
  • ASR: 976
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97257
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96295

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.35xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate to Large Imbal­ance. Open just above yesterday’s range. H4 closed trad­ing high­er, reject­ing H4 QLo although still below D1 QHi. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, VAH Rever­sal, pos­si­ble probe through val­ue through Failed Auc­tion long oth­er­wise a sus­tained auction.
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, near­by W1 supply
• Hypo 3
  • Val­ue Acceptance
• Hypo 4
  • Mean Rever­sion, Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.97725
• MN-C‑S 1.97293

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96800
• H4-C‑D 1.96518

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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