20210722 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 29 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• MN made a LL but is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last month’s body again
• Price trad­ing below W1 Bear Engulf with con­tin­u­a­tion low­er fol­lowed by a reac­tion off W1 VWAP in UT trad­ing above W1 demand.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Up giv­ing D1-C‑D 15276.33 react­ing off D1-C‑D 15127.39 with yes­ter­day hav­ing tra­versed 1.32xADR
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and Break out from H4 VWAP in DT, cur­rent­ly con­sol­i­dat­ing at a pre­vi­ous H4 base level. 
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous but still with­in the range of the 2‑day range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20197
  • ASR: 16727
    • 4182
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15463.20
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15195.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.72xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance. Price opened above yesterday’s high. H4 con­sol­i­da­tion break­ing high­er. IB tra­versed high­er, tak­ing out an old H4 Base sup­ply lev­el cur­rent­ly hit­ting D1 QHi. Yesterday’s range exceed­ed x1.32ADR although pos­si­ble upward pres­sure through D1 V‑shaped correction.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, pos­si­ble rever­sal with­in IBR, less like­ly a Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 2
  • Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion, sus­tained auc­tion long, pos­si­ble pull­back from with­in IBR, risky due to trad­ing at D1 QHi and W1/D1 Supply
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15654.79

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15401.45
• D1-C‑D 15276.33
• D1-C‑D 15127.39

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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