20210721 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD 2021 Week 29 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last month’s body
• W1 Bear Engulf with top of the range almost tak­ing out W1 Sup­ply. Price retraced to W1-C‑S 1.97725 and react­ed but price is still trad­ing with­in last week’s body at W1 demand.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf with no con­tin­u­a­tion, instead a spin­ning top with longer sell­ing wick (that made a HH react­ing off D1 QHi) was created.
  • H4 Bull­ish Inside Bar cre­at­ed at W1 demand with no fol­low-through. Instead a Drag­on­fly Doji cre­at­ed with­in H4 QLo.
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 5‑day brack­et­ing range with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing at its lows
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1213
  • ASR: 965
    • 25
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.98056
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96668

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Range,
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.04xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • 4
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Brack­et­ing range. H4 closed high­er with a RBR. 
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, sus­tained auc­tion up
• Hypo 2
  •  VAL Reversal
• Hypo 3
  •  Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.97725
• MN-C‑S 1.97293

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96800
• H4-C‑D 1.96518

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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