20210721 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 29 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last month’s body and range
• W1 Bear Engulf with con­tin­u­a­tion (although no close yet) and price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in W1 demand at W1 VWAP in UT.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Phase 4 fol­lowed by an Inside Bar react­ing off D1-C‑D 15127.39
  • H4 Bull Engulf react­ing off D1 demand clos­ing above H4 QLo fol­lowed by a con­sol­i­da­tion and break down giv­ing H4-C‑S 15261.58 at H4 VWAP in DT but did not close with­in new­ly formed H4 demand.
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day brack­et­ing indi­cat­ing a slowdown 
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 19708
  • ASR: 15894
    • 3975
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15299.70
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15092.50

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.22xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. D1 Q points got acti­vat­ed and cur­rent­ly is trad­ing mid swing. Pos­si­ble tran­si­tion to W1 Phase 4 so H4/D1 QLo could prove a mere road block. Asia closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar or pos­si­bly a con­sol­i­da­tion at H4 VWAP in DT. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, sus­tained auc­tion down
• Hypo 2
  • VAH Rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15654.79
• H4-C‑S 15261.58

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15401.45
• D1-C‑D 15127.39

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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