20210716 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD 2021 Week 28 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price retraced last week’s body and is trad­ing at W1-C‑D 1.96800

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 retraced the pre­vi­ous large day but then closed as an Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick clos­ing below D1 QHi.
  • H4 Gap Down with fill but closed low­er and formed a Base at MN C‑Sup
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues with yes­ter­day being wide
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1304
  • ASR: 868
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.98397
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96710

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.39xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. D1 closed as an Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick. Trend is still up although 2/3 although sup­plies in the way long. D1 showed some reac­tion to W1 demand but with the long sell­ing wick there could be some consolidation. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, although sup­ply with­in wide val­ue, pos­si­ble continuation
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, VAL rever­sal short, pos­si­ble failed auc­tion short
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 4
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Short

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.97725
• MN-C‑S 1.97293

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.96990
• W1-C‑D 1.96800
• MN-C‑D 1.95263

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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