20210714 Premarket Prep GBPNZD

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD 2021 Week 28 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price made a HH and got close to tak­ing out W1 Sup­ply but reversed and is trad­ing with­in last week’s body below MN/W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed as a neu­tral Spin­ning top below D1-C‑S 1.98839
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion at D1 sup­ply and break down (from H4 VWAP in UT) exhaust­ing ADR dur­ing Asia to W1 demand and H4 QLo
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1149
  • ASR: 789
    • 20
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.99560
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.98180

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.32xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large imbal­ance at the open. Trend is up 3/3. Clean arrival at H4 QLo and W1 demand. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion up
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, Auc­tion Fade Short
• Hypo 3 (less likely)
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, if Lon­don fol­lows suit to Asia. Pre­ferred late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. 
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.97725
• MN-C‑S 1.97293

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96800
• MN-C‑D 1.95263

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Not the sharpest. Will most­ly observe unless some­thing jumps out at me. 

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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