20210708 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 27 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body and range hav­ing made a HH

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed high­er clos­ing at D1 VWAP in DT with­in the pre­vi­ous hammer’s range with no HH
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3, con­sol­i­da­tion at H4-C‑S 1804.707 with break down clos­ing below H4 VWAP in UT, no arrival at old H4-C‑D 1793 (yet)
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping val­ues after an UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20455
  • ASR: 12716
    • 318
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1809.630
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1793.780

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.54xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance. H4 break down pos­si­ble tran­si­tion to Phase 4. Pre­mar­ket closed as a slight con­tin­u­a­tion to the break down. Price trad­ing at D1 VWAP in DT. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Down
• Hypo 2
  •  Return to Val­ue, Auc­tion Fade Short
• Hypo 3
  •  Failed Auc­tion Short

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863
• H4-C‑S 1804.707

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1793

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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