20210708 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 27 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body below W1 Supply

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Big D1 Bull Engulf mov­ing 1.5xADR clos­ing below D1-C‑S 15732.18
  • H4 Bear Engulf at W1 supply 
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • After a mul­ti-day brack­et yesterday’s val­ue was cre­at­ed right on top of the pre­vi­ous value
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 15671
  • ASR: 14328
    • 3582
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15719.80
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15476.40

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.10xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Near prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge might see an accep­tance of val­ue. Yes­ter­day exceed­ed ADR again 1.5x. FF trad­ed down exhaust­ing ADR
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 2
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, not wide val­ue though
• Hypo 3
  • If IB is wide, ADR got exhaust­ed, there could be a rever­sal from with­in IB using M30 QLo at H4 demand although with open below val­ue, with­in range this could be tricky
• Hypo 4
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, late-sus­tained auc­tion pre­ferred due to trad­ing with­in demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15732.18
• W1-C‑S 15677.71

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15631.58
• D1-C‑D 15606.96

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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