20210707 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 27 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body and range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Invert­ed Ham­mer react­ing off D1 VWAP in DT
  • H4 Bear Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 1804.707 (at LN VAL) fol­lowed by no con­tin­u­a­tion instead a H4 Bull Engulf at pre­vi­ous demand H4-C‑D 1793
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT although yes­ter­day more extend­ed 1xASR from the previous
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20916
  • ASR: 12611
    • 315
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1814.890
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1790.010

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.17xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. D1 closed high­er with an Invert­ed Ham­mer trad­ing above last week’s body and range. W1 QHi was reject­ed and no arrival at QLo (yet). Price cur­rent­ly trad­ing in the mid­dle of W1/D1/H4 Swing. H4 sup­ply at VAL. FF trad­ed slight­ly higher. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Rever­sal at VAL, pos­si­ble probe of value
• Hypo 2
  •  Val­ue Accep­tance, val­ue not wide plus sup­ply mak­ing for sub­par TP
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion short 
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­ant to Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863
• H4-C‑S 1804.707

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1793

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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