20210706 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 27 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body and range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 trad­ed high­er after tak­ing out D1 sup­ply arriv­ing at D1 VWAP in DT
  • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and break high­er giv­ing H4-C‑D 1793 at VAH
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 20806
  • ASR: 12856
    • 321
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1794.080
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1784.400

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.94xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance at the open. FF trad­ed high­er. H4 closed near its high after Asia took out some old supplies. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion down
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue, H4 demand at VAH (LTF demand above it at M30 VWAP in UT could pro­vide a pos­si­ble bounce), auc­tion fade
• Hypo 3 (less likely)
  •  Failed Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 4 (even less likely)
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Long. Pos­si­ble strength behind the move mak­ing for a uni­di­rec­tion­al day (2 out of 3 ses­sions), late-sus­tained auc­tion preferred

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1888.863

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1793

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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