20210706 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 27 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day closed trad­ing slight­ly high­er leav­ing a long buy­ing wick
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3
  • H4 con­sol­i­dat­ed below W1 sup­ply and closed low­er with slight reac­tion off H4-C‑D 15631.58
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Mul­ti-day brack­et with yesterday’s val­ue being wider
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 14441
  • ASR: 15176
    • 3794
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15673.80
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15531.30

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Open with­in value
• Open dis­tance to value
  • N.A. 
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Mul­ti-day brack­et. FF ambigu­ous. H4 Evening Star formed with longer buy­ing wick cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in Demand. Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3 and mul­ti-day brack­et there is no clear direc­tion­al cue. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Long, probe below value
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, probe above value
• Hypo 3 (less likely)
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Short, if there is a close below VAL coin­cid­ing with IB exten­sion, late-sus­tained auc­tion preferred 
• Hypo 4 (even less likely)
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Long

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• D1-C‑S 15732.18
• W1-C‑S 15677.71

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15631.58
• D1-C‑D 15606.96

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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