20210701 Premarket Prep Gold

01 Jul 20210701 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 26 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• MN closed as a con­sol­i­da­tion retrac­ing all of May
• W1 Demand tak­en out, no arrival at W1 QLo although ‘near’

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Out­side Down tak­ing out D1/W1 demand fol­lowed by a D1 Bull­ish Inside Bar (not quite 50%) although could be an ini­tial reac­tion after pop­ping W1 demand
  • H4 Bull Engulf at H4-C‑D 1763.785 with a move high­er to D1-C‑S 1779.092
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is DOWN ⅔, changed to MIXED TREND with H4 being up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 23536
  • ASR: 16679
    • 417
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1774.280
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1753.290

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 1.07xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large Imbal­ance. Pos­si­ble mean rever­sion. Open sen­ti­ment near D1-C‑S 1779.092. Trend changed from Down 2/3 to Mixed Trend. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, sus­tained auc­tion down,
• Hypo 2
  •  Return to Val­ue, vari­ant to Hypo 1, H4 demand above VAH, Auc­tion Fade Long
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect
• Non-Farm tomor­row

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1779.092

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1763.785

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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