20210701 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 26 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• MN closed slight­ly high­er leav­ing equal-long buy­ing and sell­ing wicks
• Price trad­ing above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 / 3
  • D1-C‑S 15732.18 test before form­ing a D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar but with long buy­ing wick react­ing off D1 50MA.
  • H4 RBR at H4-C‑D 15502.34
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • After a mul­ti day brack­et, one val­ue was cre­at­ed above and one below the brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 15532
  • ASR: 16956
    • 4239
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15726.80
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15457.70

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.15xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. FF took price slight­ly high­er. H4 RBR trad­ing with­in D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue Long, Rever­sal at VAH with­in IB
• Hypo 2
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Long, prefer­ably entry from with­in IB
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, W1 supply
• Hypo 4
  • Val­ue Acceptance

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
• Tomor­row Non-Farm

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15732.18

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15606.96
• H4-C‑D 15502.34

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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