20210623 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 25 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price retraced to W1-C‑S 15677.71

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Yes­ter­day closed down as a D1 Ham­mer after a big up-day 
  • H4 trad­ed slight­ly high­er from H4-C‑D 15603.82
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Flim­sy 3‑day bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 16971
  • ASR: 14366
    • 3592
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 16971
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 14366

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.4xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Large imbal­ance at the open due to open above range. Price accept­ed val­ue in A but there is H4-C‑D 15603.82 at VAH. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Long, after VAA, near­by H4 demand, LTF demand at VAL
• Hypo 2
  • Return to Val­ue Long, VAH rever­sal with­in IB, 
• Hypo 3
  •  Sus­tained Auc­tion Short, slight chance for a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, vari­a­tion to hypo 3, 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• W1-C‑S 15677.71

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 15444.75
• W1-C‑D 15401.45

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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