20210622 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 25 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body
• Price near­ing MN demand

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Out­side Up at W1/D1 Demand, below D1 LKC in UT, extend­ed below VWAP
  • No arrival at D1/W1 QLo
  • Price inched high­er trad­ing with­in H4 Sup­ply (OLD) at H4 VWAP in DT, then formed a weak H4 Bear Engulf
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is DOWN 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below the pre­vi­ous two over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 32403
  • ASR: 17566
    • 439
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1787.610
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1766.340

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Open with­in value
• Open dis­tance to value
  • N.A.
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Weak H4 Bear Engulf at H4 VWAp in DT is not the most con­vinc­ing although with trend being down 2/3 there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion down. This would be con­trary to the reac­tion of yesterday’s move away from D1/W1 demand. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, probe above Value
• Hypo 2
  •  Sus­tained Auc­tion Short
• Hypo 3
  •  Failed Auc­tion Long
• Hypo 4
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion Long

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1818.254 BASE
• H4-C‑S 1783.547 (low in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1774.420

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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