20210622 Premarket Prep DAX

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 25 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body with reac­tion off W1-C‑D 15401.45

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Up with long wick react­ing off D1 50MA in UT
  • H4 Bear Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 15637.43 and con­tin­u­a­tion down.
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below but edges touching
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 16305
  • ASR: 14053
    • 3513
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15659.50
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15275.00

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.22xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Close prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge, pos­si­bil­i­ty for val­ue accep­tance after com­ing from H4 QHi and new­ly formed H4 sup­ply. Big move yes­ter­day, could retrace. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, LTF demand with­in value,
• Hypo 2
  • Return to val­ue, VAH reversal
• Hypo 3
  •  Auc­tion Fade Long, after Hypo 1, W1 demand at VAL and H4 QLo

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• H4-C‑S 15637.43

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 15401.45
• D1-C‑D 15127.39

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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