20210621 Premarket Prep WTI Crude NY

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s NY ses­sion for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

WTI Crude 2021 Week 25 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ed high­er last week clos­ing neu­tral, cur­rent­ly price is trad­ing with­in body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Three Inside Down giv­ing D1‑C‑S 71.448 with no con­tin­u­a­tion. Instead some D1 demand formed just below at D1 VWAP in UT.
  • H4 Bear Engulf and con­tin­u­a­tion down
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 2/3 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 over­lap­ping val­ues, no bracket
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1434
  • ASR: 1319
    • 33
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 71.979
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 70.026

Sen­ti­ment

• NY open
  • Below Val­ue, right at VAL
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.01xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Open slight­ly below VAL com­ing from a H4 Bear Engulf at D1 Sup­ply trad­ing right into D1 Demand. Although the trend is up 3/3.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 2
• Hypo 1
  • Val­ue Accep­tance, ear­ly accep­tance and fol­low-through although sup­ply with­in value
• Hypo 2
  • Failed Auc­tion long, price extends down prob­ing demand
• Hypo 3
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
• Hypo 4
  •  Auc­tion Fade Long at H4-C‑D 70.553
• Hypo 5
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, probe of value

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 71.448

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 70.553

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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