20210621 Premarket Prep Gold

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 25 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body at W1 Demand

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Closed with­in D1/W1 Demand and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last Friday’s body but with­in range
  • H4 trad­ed high­er and closed as a Bull­ish Ham­mer below H4-C‑S 1783.547
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is DOWN 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Flim­sy over­lap but no brack­et (yet)
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 32796
  • ASR: 17281
    • 432
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1797.030
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1760.780

Sen­ti­ment

• LN open
  • Below Val­ue, With­in Rage
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.53xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. H4 closed high­er from D1/W1 demand still below H4-C‑S 1783.547 (low in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve, at VAL, trad­ing below H4 VWAP in DT).
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to Val­ue, VAL rever­sal, pos­si­ble Failed Auc­tion (probe of value), 
• Hypo 2
  •  Val­ue Accep­tance, although LTF sup­ply at VAH and H4 c‑sup at VAL
• Hypo 3
  • Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion, Sus­tained Auc­tion Down, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
• Hypo 4
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, after Hypo 2
• Hypo 5
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, after Hypo 1 or 3 pos­si­bly at W1 Demand End

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1818.254 BASE
• H4-C‑S 1783.547 (low in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1774.420
• MN-C‑D 1741.655
• W1-C‑D 1730.136

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram