20210617 Premarket Prep WTI Crude NY

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s NY ses­sion for WTI Crude. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

WTI Crude 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price still trad­ing above last week’s body and range with some reac­tion off W1-C‑S 73.340 although no touch

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar
  • H4-C‑S 72.276 formed and test­ed before clos­ing as a spin­ning top slight­ly high­er but with long longer sell­ing wick
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Flim­sy brack­et but val­ues still slop­ing up
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1231
  • ASR: 1105
    • 280
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 72.961
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 71.396

Sen­ti­ment

• NY open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 0.26xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Slight Gap down. D1 Bear­ish Inside Bar with an open below sen­ti­ment there could be more down­side. Over­ruled in case of a val­ue accep­tance. Trend is UP 3/3
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Return to val­ue, VAL Rever­sal, Sus­tained Auc­tion Down
• Hypo 2
  •  Val­ue Accep­tance, not good prof­it tar­get due to Sup­ply with­in value
• Hypo 3
  • Failed Auc­tion Short, probe above IB to val­ue and supply
• Hypo 4
  • Sus­tained Auc­tion up, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
• Hypo 5
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, vari­a­tion to Hypo 2

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 72.276

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 71.496
• H4-C‑D 71.037

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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