20210617 Premarket Prep Gold NY

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s NY ses­sion for GOLD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

Gold 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

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The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Huge move down fol­low­ing the W1 Three Out­side Down

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Phase 4 tak­ing out demands
  • H4 Phase 4 form­ing a base giv­ing H4-C‑S 1818.254 BASE
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is DOWN 2/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 3‑day brack­et with yes­ter­day hav­ing formed a wide VA
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 29161
  • ASR: 15947
    • 399
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1862.850
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1803.890

Sen­ti­ment

• NY open
  • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
• Open dis­tance to value
  • 3.84xASR
• Nar­ra­tive
  • Huge Imbal­ance at the open. ADR got exhaust­ed dur­ing Lon­don (169%). Near­by D1/W1 demand
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1
  • Mean Rever­sion, Sus­tained Auc­tion Up (momen­tum, pos­si­ble dur­ing C), due to huge imbal­ance and H4 Sup­ply Base taper prof­it target
• Hypo 2
  • Auc­tion Fade Short, Hypo 1 plays out reach­ing near H4 Sup­ply Base with­out hit­ting it, tar­get IB high
• Hypo 3
  • Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion, sus­tained auc­tion down, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry
• Hypo 4
  • Failed Auc­tion Long, probe below IB to close with­in IB
• Hypo 5
  • Auc­tion Fade Long, price con­tin­ues low­er, PA rever­sal, tar­get IB low

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal preser­va­tion rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1818.254 BASE

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1785.960
• W1-C‑D 1774.420

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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