17 Jun 20210617 Premarket Prep Gold NY
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This is my premarket prep for today’s NY session for GOLD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Huge move down following the W1 Three Outside Down
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Phase 4 taking out demands
- H4 Phase 4 forming a base giving H4-C‑S 1818.254 BASE
- Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Up
- Prevailing trend: Trend is DOWN 2/3
- Market Profile
- 3‑day bracket with yesterday having formed a wide VA
- Daily Range
- ADR: 29161
- ASR: 15947
- 399
- Day
- Yesterday’s High 1862.850
- Yesterday’s Low 1803.890
Sentiment
- NY open
- Below Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- 3.84xASR
- Narrative
- Huge Imbalance at the open. ADR got exhausted during London (169%). Nearby D1/W1 demand
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- 4
- Hypo 1
- Mean Reversion, Sustained Auction Up (momentum, possible during C), due to huge imbalance and H4 Supply Base taper profit target
- Hypo 2
- Auction Fade Short, Hypo 1 plays out reaching near H4 Supply Base without hitting it, target IB high
- Hypo 3
- Trend Continuation, sustained auction down, possible late-sustained auction entry
- Hypo 4
- Failed Auction Long, probe below IB to close within IB
- Hypo 5
- Auction Fade Long, price continues lower, PA reversal, target IB low
Additional notes
- Capital preservation rule in effect
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1818.254 BASE
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1785.960
- W1-C‑D 1774.420
Mindful Trading (lack of sleep?)
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- No momentum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
- Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Risk Management
- Without forcing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if possible 2.
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING
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