20210524 Trade Review GBPNZD

Play: Fad­ing the Auction

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #trad­in­gre­view #price­ac­tion #chartre­view #GBPNZD

I have already reviewed these trades but I like to go back and review them again. Hence this new for­mat I am intro­duc­ing into my process.

Mar­ket Narrative

My trad­ing idea was that after hav­ing formed a Neu­tral Day price reached H4 demand and start­ed fal­ter­ing on M5 and formed a Bull Engulf. Being a Neu­tral Day I hypoth­e­sized that there could be a chance for price to move back up to IBR instead of con­tin­u­ing the move down. 

How was the Entry?

EDIT: So in Hind­sight this was a bad trad­ing idea. H4 Demand got popped and H4 can­dle was devel­op­ing a bear­ish one break­ing down from H4 VWAP in UT. Nev­er­the­less, I think I did well to take a chance and per­haps get a buffer trade in. 

I entered off the M5 Bull Engulf which was okay. Then I mon­i­tored for M15 to fol­low up with a pos­i­tive tran­si­tion into Three Inside Up after the Bull­ish Inside Bar which didn’t come. Instead there was a Doji which could form a base so let it go for a bit longer and then price formed a very flim­sy M15 RBR so decid­ed to extend the time a bit fur­ther visu­al­iz­ing a pos­si­ble move to IB low and for­ma­tion of a M30 Three Inside Up. Which did come (not the move to IB low but the M30 for­ma­tion) but again very flim­sy. This was part of the sus­tained auc­tion move (after pop­ping H4 demand see­ing a pull­back as a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry opportunity). 

Odds enhancer: Auc­tion Fade, Neu­tral Day, H4 Demand Popped, 2 TPO Pullback, 

How was the SL place­ment and sizing?

It was good as it was well below the for­ma­tion and stan­dard size. 

How was the prof­it target?

I was bank­ing on a buffer trade here and expect­ing to pock­et 0.5R at IB low. 

How was the Exit?

Exit was not great as price had just moved in my favor and I was expect­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er but I thought to pock­et some prof­its due to trad­ing in over­lap noise as well as Pro­file show­ing anoth­er lit­tle struc­ture before IB low (no sin­gle print fade).

What would a price action-based exit have done for the trade?

-0.2R

What would a time-based exit have done for the trade?

-0.2R

What did I do well?

I did real­ly well to take the trade how­ev­er risky it was. H4 demand got popped plus new H4 can­dle closed bear­ish break­ing down from H4 VWAP in UT. Real­ly longs were not favored in this set­ting. I did well to take the trade then com­mit to it for a while giv­ing it some time to let it move. Then I took 0.2R prof­it pre­ma­ture­ly for rea­sons out­lined above but hey… progress not perfection. 

What could I have done better?

With the Poor Low formed and H4 Demand Popped I could have gath­ered for a sus­tained move and tak­en the trade in the oppo­site direc­tion for a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. Although this was very late into the ses­sion so don’t think I would have actu­al­ly tak­en it. 

Obser­va­tions

2 TPO Pull­back after H4 Demand Popped is some­thing I forward-test. 

Missed Oppor­tu­ni­ty

The afore­men­tioned late-sus­tained auc­tion entry

Pre­mar­ket prep on the day

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210524

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Dai­ly Report Card on the day

How did I trade today? 20210524

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