20082019 Tuesday — Trade Plan & Journal

20082019 Tues­day — Trade Plan & Journal

Ter­mi­nol­o­gy (par­tial­ly made up by yours truly)

• PA = Price Action
• BO = Break Out
• BD = Break Down
• CAR = Con­firm As Resistance
• CAS = Con­firm As Support
• UKC = Upper Kelt­ner Channel
• LKC = Low­er Kelt­ner Channel
• TV = Tick Volume
• WPP = Week­ly Piv­ot Point
• DPP = Dai­ly Piv­ot Point
• DR = Dai­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• DS = Dai­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• WR = Week­ly Resis­tance (piv­ot)
• WS = Week­ly Sup­port (piv­ot)
• HL = High­er Low
• HH = High­er High
• LH = Low­er High
• LL = Low­er Low
• SD = Stan­dard Deviation
• VWAP = Vol­ume Weight­ed Aver­age Price
• AS = Asian Session
• LS = Lon­don Ses­sion (EU)
• NY = New York Ses­sion (US)
• R/R = Risk to Reward
• M2M = Move to Move
• T2H = Trade to Hold
• DT = DownTrend
• UT = UpTrend
• R = Range
• LTF = Low­er Time Frame
• TTF = Trad­ing Time Frame
• HTF = High­er Time Frame
• HHTF = High­er High Time Frame
• Hypo = HYPOthetical
• AD = Accu­mu­la­tion Distribution

Health review

• Week­ly goal
  • Eat less carbs
• How do you feel? Have you recent­ly had a break of dai­ly rou­tine (like a trip)? Did you have 2 (or more) nights of insuf­fi­cient sleep?
  • I feel good. Had a good night’s sleep.
• How would you rate it (1–5)? 1/2 = don’t trade 3= quar­ter posi­tion 1st 12 2nd 2, 4= half posi­tion = 1st 25 2nd 5, 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10
  • 5= full posi­tion = 1st 50 2nd 10

Mar­ket Prep

Intra­day Tech­ni­cal Analysis

• HHTF
  • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • HHTF R above 50MA with cross over VWAP look­ing like it’s los­ing strength below UKC
• HTF
  • Lev­els
    • Prev. High 56.243
    • PVAH 55.661
    • PPOC 55.249
    • PVAL 55.011
    • Prev. Low 54.736
  • What is the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and bias?
    • HTF HL get­ting more fre­quent pos­si­ble indi­ca­tion of more upside, PA is still above VWAP how­ev­er the price might drop to load up once more before mov­ing price up
• TTF
  • Does the Asian ses­sion show clues that align with mar­ket narrative?
    • We had a gap down that got filled straight away how­ev­er this might be anoth­er sign of mar­ket fail­ing around this lev­el, TTF mov­ing side­ways over­bought over­sold condition

Trade Idea (Lack of clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF U TC 50MA
  • Entry around 56
  • Tar­gets 56.40, 56.80, 57
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC VWAP
  • Entry around 56.20
  • Tar­gets 56.40, 56.80, 57
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 55.70 — 56.20
• Hypo 4 Short
  • HTF UKC CAR
  • Entry around 56
  • Tar­gets 55.85, 55.70, 55.45, 55.25

My goals for the day (Dai­ly Report Card)

• Define win­ning
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)

Read­ing the Tape

• What is printing? 
  • 16:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF UT in effect above VWAP with a poten­tial bounce off VWAP
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bought back down to LKCCAS above 200MA with long-bod­ied AD going on pos­si­ble absorp­tion by bulls
    • Bias
      • SLight­ly long but need more con­fir­ma­tion since it looks like we could have had a UKC BO F
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM
  • 16:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Seems like lots of AD going on at this lev­el still not too clear on nar­ra­tive will have to wait for more clues although instinc­tive­ly I think we are going to BO here
    • TTF
      • TTF R AD above VWAP 50 after we had a LKCCAS above 200
    • Bias
      • Slight­ly long but need more confirmation
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • Unclear ATM
  • 17:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HHTF is poten­tial­ly mak­ing a 200MACAR
        • HTF has a doji at this same lev­el so we might be rejec­tion this lev­el here
    • TTF
      • TTF R Over­bought but still above VWAP 50
    • Bias
      • Short but will need more con­fir­ma­tion in the form like a 50 BD although longer term is prob­a­bly long since PA is slow­ly creep­ing upwards
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • HTF VWAP BD
  • 17:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still same
  • 18:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Still the same
  • 18:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • HTF UKC BO F
    • TTF
      • TTF R Pos­si­ble 200MA BD
    • Bias
      • Short
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • TTF D TC @ VWAP / 50
  • 19:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
        • Inde­ci­sive move down to HTF50, pos­si­bly part of a big­ger nar­ra­tive where smart mon­ey is try­ing to keep prices up to sell at a high­er price before it drops
    • TTF
      • TTF R R‑Line intact and pos­si­ble LKCBD
    • Bias
      • Short unless we break R‑Line
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
        • D TC R‑Line
  • 19:35
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF
    • Bias
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?
  • 20:05
    • HTF
      • What is the mar­ket narrative?
    • TTF
    • Bias
    • Oppor­tu­ni­ty (if any)
      • What set­up am I going to stalk?

Dai­ly Report Card

Trade Idea (Lack of clarity)

• Hypo 1 Long
  • HTF U TC 50MA
  • Entry around 56
  • Tar­gets 56.40, 56.80, 57
• Hypo 2 Long
  • HTF U TC VWAP
  • Entry around 56.20
  • Tar­gets 56.40, 56.80, 57
• Hypo 3 Rotational
  • 55.70 — 56.20
• Hypo 4 Short
  • HTF UKC CAR
  • Entry around 56
  • Tar­gets 55.85, 55.70, 55.45, 55.25

	Dai­ly Report Card
Date:	8/20/2019
Week­ly Goal	Exe­cute A+ / A setups
Com­bined Score	89
Process Report Card (10 each)
	10	Ses­sion PECS
	10	Hypos
	10	Mar­ket Prep
	10	Dai­ly review
	10	Progress tow. week­ly goal
	50	Total
Per­for­mance Report Card (10 each)
100%	9	Real-time analy­sis
1/1	10	Setups Iden­ti­fied (inc. TEST)
0/1	0	Setups tak­en
0/1	10	Erro­neous Entries
0/1	10	Erro­neous Exits
	39	total

• Week­ly Goal
  • Only A/A+trade ideas based on good nar­ra­tive on 1st account (4 points)
    • Did well here and not trade at all since there were no A/A+ setups and I was hav­ing a tough time fig­ur­ing out the nar­ra­tive. Actu­al­ly, it wasn’t the nar­ra­tive that I had an issue with as much as it was my TTF not back­ing up the nar­ra­tive as much as I want­ed. Just a lack of clar­i­ty is what I’m say­ing I guess. Lat­er on I noticed what the struc­ture was that I need­ed to focus on but by then I missed my best entry so I stayed out (unless it would return to that tech lev­el again) and decid­ed to observe the remain­der of the ses­sion. Being flat is also a position. 
  • Don’t wor­ry about P&L, let the trade work out based on mar­ket nar­ra­tive and have cor­rect sizing(4 points)
    • Did well here to stay flat when lack of con­fi­dence in my under­stand­ing of the ses­sion. When I did fig­ure it out I wait­ed for a bet­ter entry which has not hap­pened (yet).
  • For­ward test setups on 2nd account that are aligned with trade idea (2 points)
    • Observed an exper­i­men­tal set­up instead of tak­ing trades
• Review

Trade Idea	Pos.	Entry Errors	Exit Errors	Type Trade	Size	Rea­son to cover
No Trades Taken

• How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket context?
  • Hypo 4 — 100%
    • Not well that it was the 4th Hypo to play out but good that I includ­ed it 
  • Real-time analy­sis — 90%
    • I took points off for not com­ing up with the struc­ture ear­li­er but then again it is some­thing very new that I have been work­ing on so cut­ting myself some slack here
• How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?
  • P: Did well here
  • E: Did well here
  • CS: Did well here
• What’s one thing you learned today?
  • I learned more about one of my exper­i­men­tal setups
• Positive(s)
  • Stayed when there was lack of clarity
  • When clar­i­ty set in I wait­ed for a good entry to present itself but didn’t so I stayed out
    • Being flat is also a position
• Negative(s)
  • I could have ‘caught on’ soon­er I guess but since this is a very nice addi­tion to my mar­ket approach I cut myself some slack and will nail it next time. 

Feed­back?

Any ques­tions or feed­back you might have please feel free to leave a com­ment or con­tact me directly.